Pumpkin-flavored desserts are already appearing in New York bakery cases, even as temperatures hover in the high 70s. On Saturday morning in Cobble Hill, a steady line formed at Mia’s Bread for slices of pumpkin loaf. The city’s bakers say the demand for autumnal flavors begins well before leaves change in Prospect Park.

Cookbook author Yossy Arefi addressed the trend this week in an interview, noting that pumpkin cake sales rise sharply after Labor Day. She pointed to the appeal of using canned pumpkin, which avoids the unpredictability of fresh squash and ensures consistency for bakers producing high volumes.

At 9 a.m. on the Upper West Side, the bakery counter at Silver Moon had already sold out of its pumpkin muffins. Staff there report requests for the flavor as early as late August. "People want that spice and nostalgia as soon as school starts," said manager Elena Cruz.

Despite debates about seasonality, the market for pumpkin-based pastries shows no sign of slowing. Supermarkets in Queens began stocking shelves with canned pumpkin and spice mixes last week. Local bakers expect the trend to continue as the city heads deeper into fall.